BEC高级阅读：京东商城能否一鸣惊人
When Warren Buffett spends $12bn on Heinz, a $125m stake by Prince Alwaleed bin Talal in Chinese online retailer 360 Buy looks trivial. But it is a sign that while the most famous value investor is plumping for quality, if not value exactly, his rival is still backing shoot-for-the-stars propositions. And they don’t get much starrier, or riskier, than China’s cut-throat retail world.
相比沃伦·巴菲特投资亨氏(Heinz)的120亿美元，阿尔瓦利德·本·塔拉尔王子(Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal)投资中国网络零售商京东商城(360 Buy)所花的1.25亿美元看起来微不足道。但这一迹象表明，当最富盛名的价值投资者选择质量(若非严格意义上的“价值”的话)之时，他的对手却仍在寻觅“一鸣惊人”式的投资对象。再没有比竞争激烈的中国零售市场更具“惊人”潜力，或者说更具风险的领域了。
Based on sheer size, ecommerce in the world’s second-largest economy has enormous potential. Only about two-fifths of China’s population is online, half the proportion of the US or South Korea. At 200m, there are already 25 per cent more online shoppers in China than the US, yet this still only constitutes a third of all Chinese netizens. Three quarters of web-savvy Americans are regular online spenders. China has far fewer retailers who can call themselves national too, so the web offers huge brand value potential to the outfit that can make it big online.
从规模看，全球第二大经济体的电子商务市场存在巨大潜力。中国仅有约五分之二的人口使用网络，比例不到美国或韩国的一半。但在线购物人数已达2亿，超出美国 25%，这还只占中国网民人数的三分之一。美国熟悉网络的人口中，有四分之三会经常上网消费。此外，在中国可自称全国经营的零售商少得多，因此对于能够在网上做大的商家，网络为他们提供了巨大品牌价值潜力。
The trick is profiting from this market. Prince Alwaleed’s target, 360 Buy, is the second-largest online retailer, accounting for about a sixth of transaction value. Its sales have been rising at a compound 150 per cent. But so has the online market overall, according to Macquarie, suggesting little share gain in spite of extreme, and expensive, price war stunts that have hurt everyone. Gome, which competes in electronics, recently said its online unit was one factor in its first full-year loss last year. Macquarie expects market growth to slow to about 50 per cent by 2015. Most businesses would die for that, but there are as yet no signs of profits at 360 Buy as it builds a delivery network.
窍门是如何从这一市场获利。阿尔瓦利德王子的投资目标京东商城，是中国第二大网络零售商，规模占网络交易总量的六分之一。近年其销售额的复合增长率达 150%。但据麦格理(Macquarie)数据显示，在线市场的整体规模扩大速度也有这么快，似乎表明其市场份额几乎没有增长，尽管一场又一场极端且代价高昂的价格战噱头害惨了所有商家。电子产品市场的竞争者国美(Gome)日前表示，其网络部门是造成去年首次全年亏损的因素之一。麦格理预计，到 2015年，市场增长将放缓至50%左右。对大多数企业来说，这种增速是求之不得的，但忙于打造送货网络的京东商城还没有任何盈利迹象。
Prince Alwaleed’s stake is part of a $400m injection for 360 Buy. Forget that last year the company said it was fully funded until 2015. Kingdom Holdings, the prince’s vehicle, says it invests in groups that seek to list in three years. That could be optimistic.
阿尔瓦利德王子的持股，是京东商城此轮4亿美元注资的一部分。忘掉该公司去年所说的到2015年都资金充沛的话吧。阿尔瓦利德王子的投资工具——金达控股(Kingdom Holdings)表示，会投资于三年内寻求上市的集团。这可能乐观了点儿。
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