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China IMF Can cellations Raise Concerns
Souring relations between Japan and China, which sufferedanother blow Wednesday when China's central-bank governorand finance minister pulled out of a high-profile gathering ofglobal finance chiefs in Tokyo, are starting to cause seriouseconomic damage that could deepen if passions stay high, investors, analysts and politicians here warned.
The revelation that China's two highest-level delegates had withdrawn from the annual meeting ofthe International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Tokyo amid an escalating dispute betweenAsia's two biggest economies, sent stocks to a two-month low and heightened worries about real-world impacts.
The Chinese central bank governor's 'nonattendance at the IMF-World Bank meeting is not onlybad for Japan-China relations, but also for the global economy,'' Japanese Foreign Minister KoichiroGemba said at a news conference Wednesday. ``I believe it also won't be a plus for China, considering how the international community will view such moves.''
The spat nominally over who owns a set of tiny islands in the East China Sea has already sparkedanti-Japan protests, battered sales of Japanese goods in China, and decimated tourism betweenthe two countries.
On Wednesday, some analysts lowered their forecasts for car makers and other companies thatdo a lot of business in China, while China's auto association blamed a small sales drop in Septemberon Chinese consumer anger at Japan over the islands. J.P. Morgan Tuesday estimated thatChinese boycotts of Japanese goods and services could shrink Japan's economy by 0.8 percentage point in the last quarter of the year, and岸if tensions stay high in 2013 could curbgrowth by as much as 0.2 percentage point next year.
``I am very concerned'' about the escalating tensions between Japan and China, said TomoyaMasanao, a portfolio manager who oversees Japanese investments for giant asset-manager PacificInvestment Management Co., or Pimco. Mr. Masanao said he expects the situation to betemporary but warned the fund needs to 'monitor how long this situation will continue. We needto re-examine how this is going to affect Japan's growth rate and how this will impact trade data.'
China's state-run Xinhua news agency said China would be represented at the IMF meeting by theNo. 2 officials at the PBOC and the Finance Ministry. Its report didn't mention the last-minutedefection from the IMF meeting of Chinese Finance Minister Xie Xuren as well as People's Bank ofChina Governor Zhou Xiaochuan who was slated to deliver the closing speech.
The absences was the latest sobering reminder that the passions raised by the two countries' territorial spat are far from dying down. Tensions have been building since September, when Japannationalized some of the islands, known as the Senkakus in Japan and Diaoyu in Chinese, a moveseen as a provocation by China and Taiwan, which claim them as well.
Experts point to politics as one reason for the dispute's persistence. The leadership in both Chinaand Japan is in a state of flux, and the country's top politicians can't afford to look soft on hot-button issues.
'The concern is that you have both the leadership transition in China and the potential for electionsin Japan,'' said Janet Lewis, an auto analyst at Macquarie Securities in Hong Kong. 'Both of thoseevents could lead to more focus on nationalistic commentary than might otherwise have been thecase.'' Ms. Lewis estimates that unit car sales for Japanese auto makers in China could be almost asbad during October as they were in September, when Toyota Motor Corp. said it sold 49% fewervehicles than the year before.
Deutsche Bank Group on Wednesday lowered its estimate for Toyota's full-year earnings per shareby 2.4%, largely on China concerns. Goldman Sachs for similar reasons cut operating-profitestimates for 16 Japanese electronics companies including printer maker Canon Inc. and cameramaker Olympus Corp.
``Japan is clearly moving more towards overseas investment and overseas sales, so politicalrelations are becoming more and more important,'' said Martin Shulz, a senior economist at theFujitsu Research Institute, at a forum on the sidelines of the IMF meeting. 'Taking care of this [dispute] becomes a very strong issue in the interests of Japanese corporations.''
One path toward easing the current political standoff on the islands is if the ruling party of JapanesePrime Minister Yoshihiko Noda loses to its chief opposition rival during the next elections, said HirokoMaeda, a China expert at think tank PHP Research Institute. While China probably couldn't softenits stance versus Mr. Noda, who approved the purchase of the disputed islands, it might be able tonegotiate with a successor, she said. The date of elections isn't set, but Mr. Noda has promised tohold them soon.
China needs Mr. Noda to be the scapegoat for Japan's nationalization,' Ms. Maeda said. 'He's thebad guy that created the current mess, and the expectation is that the next election will bring inanother leader anyway.'