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A Tight Rope on China’s Currency
WASHINGTON — At the presidential debate on Monday night, Mitt Romney, the Republicans’ nominee, repeated his promiseto brand China a currency manipulator and to rebalance the trade relationship between the twocountries.
“I’ve watched year in and year out as companies have shut down and people have lost their jobsbecause China has not played by the same rules, in part by holding down artificially the value oftheir currency,” Mr. Romney said.
But formally citing Beijing as a currency manipulator may backfire, economic and foreign-policyexperts have said. In the worst case, it could set off a trade war, leading to falling Americanexports to China and more expensive Chinese imports.
“The economic credibility of that action would be pretty thin,” said Arvind Subramanian of thePeterson Institute of International Economics in Washington. “Moreover, it would be blatantlyprovocative at a time when the new leadership was getting in place in China, and the newadministration as well.”
Asked about the possibility of a trade war at his debate with President Obama, Mr. Romney saidone was already under way. “It’s a silent one, and they’re winning,” he said. “We can’t justsurrender and lose jobs.”
American officials largely, if tacitly, agree that China manipulates the value of its currency to aid itseconomy.
In its most recent installment of a twice-yearly report to Congress on the exchange and economicpolicies of the United States’ major trading partners, the Treasury Department said that China has “resisted very strong market pressures” for currency appreciation and that its “real effectiveexchange rate exhibited persistent and substantial undervaluation.”
But since 1994, the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations have declined to formally designateChina as a currency manipulator for a number of economic and strategic reasons.
For the Obama administration, one reason is that China has made significant progress in allowingits currency to appreciate against the dollar of late — making Chinese imports relatively moreexpensive and American exports relatively more competitive. A dollar currently buys about 6.25 renminbi, down from about 6.8 when Mr. Obama took office.
Administration officials have urged China to do more in frequent behind-the-scenes negotiations: to allow further currency appreciation, to protect American companies’ intellectual property, toreform its financial system, to even the playing field for companies that might want to invest inChina and many other issues.
The administration has also filed new trade cases against China at the World Trade Organization, and set up a trade task force to ensure all countries are playing by the rules.
They have also praised the country for the progress it has made. “I think the cumulative effect ofwhat China has done on the exchange rate side is, and the external side, is very significant andvery promising,” Timothy F. Geithner, the Treasury secretary, said this year.
Congress has pushed a more aggressive approach, repeatedly putting forward bipartisan bills topunish countries, like China, that manipulate their currencies.
“The jig is up, it’s time to stop gaming the system or face severe consequences,” Senator CharlesE. Schumer, Democrat of New York, said in a statement last year, co-sponsoring a bill that focusedon Beijing. “China’s history of half-truths and broken promises on currency makes passing thislegislation an economic imperative.”
Second, economic and foreign-policy experts argue that taking more aggressive actions againstChina might not result in a stronger American economy — instead pitting the two countriesagainst each other.
“In the worst case, a Romney decision to go to the brink with Beijing on the value of its currencywould result in a mutually damaging trade war that slowed economic growth and increasedunemployment in both countries and caused inflation and higher interest rates in the UnitedStates,” Richard C. Bush III of the Brookings Institution wrote in a recent analysis.
Labeling China a currency manipulator would not automatically put in place tariffs, sanctions orother trade actions. But the measure would signal the United States’ intention to take suchmeasures — and China might take countervailing ones in turn. Beijing might stop grantingcontracts to American companies, like General Electric or Boeing, for instance. It might issue leviesor tariffs itself.
Antagonizing China would threaten the trade relationship with one of the United States’ fastest-growing export markets, economists note. Chinese investment in the United States has also beenincreasing.
“Today China is a minor U.S. employer compared to longtime foreign investors such as Germanyor Japan, but the potential for Chinese investment-led job creation is tremendous,” concluded areport released last month by the Rhodium Group, a research firm in New York. “If investmentfrom China remains on track, Chinese firms will employ 200,000 to 400,000 Americans by 2020,” up from about 27,000 today.
More broadly, if the United States leveled sanctions or tariffs against China, other low-wagecountries — in many cases, countries that also engage in currency manipulation — might fill itsvoid, economists said.
“Smaller U.S. trade deficits with China, offset by larger bilateral deficits with other countries, cannotbe expected to provide material job growth,” concluded recent research by the Federal ReserveBank of St. Louis.
On top of any economic concerns come pressing foreign-policy concerns. Designating China as acurrency manipulator might cast a shadow on relations with the Asian power.
For months, Chinese officials have quietly telegraphed their displeasure at the idea that a newadministration might brand them as a manipulator.
At the International Monetary Fund-World Bank meetings in Tokyo this month, Yi Gang, deputygovernor of the People’s Bank of China, made a point of noting the country’s progress — thecountry’s current account surplus has fallen to 2.1 percent of economic output from 10.1 percentin 2007, he said, for instance.
“This has been primarily driven by structural factors, including the substantial appreciation of thereal exchange rate,” Mr. Yi said. “In the face of the uncertain global environment, the Chinesegovernment will continue to take effective measures to maintain growth stability and acceleratethe restructuring of the economy.”