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Philip Morris Seeks Edge In China
Marlboro is the world's top-selling cigarette, but it has aminuscule 0.3% share of the market in China, where roughly aquarter of the population smokes.
Now, Philip Morris International Inc., which makes and marketsMarlboro outside the U.S., is trying to raise its profile in thatenormous Asian nation by moving beyond simple smokes. Inone curious effort, it is setting out to develop flu vaccines derived from a type of tobacco plant. In another project, closer to its core business, it is developing less harmful cigarettes, which itwould aim to sell all over the world, but especially in China, where about 40% of the world'scigarettes are smoked but state-owned China National Tobacco Corp. enjoys a virtual monopoly.
In September, Philip Morris said it would be licensing rights from Medicago Inc., a small Canadianbiopharmaceutical company, to develop vaccines for sale in China. The seemingly incongruousmove is underpinned and motivated by several different situations. Philip Morris already ownsabout 40% of Medicago. Philip Morris also has a goal of diversifying into different tobacco-relatedproducts.
More important, the vaccine agreement in China has as much to do with cultivating relations withgovernment officials as diversifying into a new business that may or may not take root, highlightinghow much of a long-term play China remains for Switzerland-based Philip Morris, the world'ssecond-largest cigarette company by volume, after China National Tobacco.
'This is one other way they could endear themselves to the Chinese,'' said Bonnie Herzog, a globaltobacco analyst at Wells Fargo.
At a recent investor conference, Philip Morris acknowledged traditional cigarettes from foreigncompanies will continue to be a hard sell in China, where the government generates tens of billionsof dollars in profits from tobacco. Retail cigarette sales in the country topped $160 billion in 2011, roughly a quarter of the global market, according to estimates by Euromonitor, a data service.
'Why would they share their market?'' Philip Morris Chairman and Chief Executive Louis Camilleritold investors in June. 'To come up with new technology is really the only avenue to get into aplace like China.''
Thus Philip Morris's effort to develop next-generation cigarettes that are less harmful than currentversions, with a serving of public health on the side.
There are rising health concerns about cigarettes in China. More than 1 million people die annuallyin the country from tobacco-related diseases and officials have warned the number could triple by 2030 without action. Health authorities have been pushing to turn more public buildings smoke-free.
Philip Morris is investing hundreds of millions of dollars trying to develop less-harmful cigarettes andexecutives have described the strategy as a potential 'game changer'' in China. One versiongenerates smoke at temperatures below combustion, releasing fewer toxins, but aims to mimictraditional cigarettes more closely than alternatives already on the market such as electroniccigarettes.
Philip Morris has begun discussing its next-generation plans with CNTC and Chinese officials 'areextremely interested,'' Andre Calantzopoulos, Philip Morris's chief operating officer, recently toldinvestors. But he estimated the new cigarette products wouldn't be launched before 2016 or 2017.
The vaccine is perhaps even further off in the future.
Philip Morris said its China flu business hinges on the successful completion of clinical trials andsecuring regulatory approvals. 'We're definitely talking years,'' added a spokeswoman for PhilipMorris.
Medicago specializes in producing flu vaccines from Nicotiana benthamiana, a relative of Nicotianatabacum, the tobacco plant used in cigarettes. It represents one of several plant and cell-basedalternatives to chicken eggs, which have been used for decades to make vaccines but are seen asslow and expensive.
China has been among the countries hardest hit by H5N1 over the past decade and was swept upin the H1N1 outbreak of 2009 and 2010, which killed an estimated 280,000 people world-wide, according to a recent estimate.
Under the Medicago deal announced in late September, Philip Morris will pay an initial $4.5 million forthe rights to develop Medicago's pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccines for China.
Medicago produced more than 10 million doses of an H1N1 or swine flu vaccine within 30 daysearlier this year in a research project with the U.S. Department of Defense. It also has reportedpositive results from a Phase II clinical trial for an H5N1 or avian flu vaccine. The China programrepresents publicly traded Medicago's first foreign-licensing deal.
Philip Morris began investing in Medicago in 2008, when it acquired a large minority stake in theQuebec-based company for roughly $15 million─pocket change for the cigarette maker.
Both the next-generation cigarettes and the flu vaccines are expected to take several years tocome to market, if ever.
Philip Morris got its foot in the door in China in 2005, when it inked a strategic partnership withChina National Tobacco, or CNTC. Under that arrangement, CNTC began producing Marlborosunder license in China four years ago. Philip Morris also helps distribute CNTC brands outside China, including Poland and the Czech Republic.
But as of last year, CNTC still boasted a 97% market share in its home country, according toEuromonitor International. Marlboro's 0.3% market share puts it behind more than three dozenCNTC brands including market-leading Hongtashan. China's biggest foreign brand last year, BritishAmerican Tobacco PLC's 555, had a 0.5% market share.