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China's Internet-search giant continues to deliver solid growth, but uncertainties about increased competition and thetransition to mobile Internet remain.
Net income for Baidu in the third quarter came in at 3.0 billionyuan ($480.4 million), up 60% year-over-year. That is downfrom 70% growth in the second quarter, and guidance forrevenue in the fourth quarter points to a further slowdown. But against headwinds from a slowingeconomy, it isn't bad.
A key ingredient of Baidu's continued rapid growth: success in tapping the small-business market. Baidu added a record 38,000 customers in the third quarter, with small firms in second- and third-tier cities accounting for much of the action. There is scope to do more. Baidu's 390,000 customers represent a fraction of the tens of millions of small businesses in China.
But competition is heating up. China's Internet upstart Qihoo 360 has gone from zero search-traffic market share in the second quarter to around 8% in the third, according to data fromAnalysys. It simply switched to its own search engine as the default on its popular browser.
A marginal loss in market share hasn't affected Baidu's revenue. Analysys says the firm's slice ofthe search-market revenue pie is steady at 78.6% in the third quarter. But if Qihoo can increaseits gains, and monetize effectively, that could change.
The transition to mobile is also a challenge. Mobile is now the most popular mode for accessingChina's Internet, used by 72.2% of users in the second quarter, compared with 70.7% for PCs. Baidu Chief Executive Officer Robin Li reported triple-digit growth in mobile search and 'lessexciting' growth in PC search.
The firm has an aggressive strategy with a new mobile browser, cloud capabilities and outreach tocustomers on the benefits of mobile advertising. For now though, Baidu's share of the mobile-search market is lower than its share in PCs. Mr. Li says it will take 'a couple of years' to makemobile ad spend commensurate with traffic.
Baidu shares have fallen from a peak of $151 in April this year to $113 this week. That might seemmore than is justified by the deceleration in earnings growth. But investors who have watchedshares in U.S. giant Facebook hammered by the transition to mobile have reason to be cautious.
中国的互联网搜索巨头继续稳健成长,但竞争加剧、互联网移动化趋势带来的不确定性仍在。
百度第三季度实现净收益人民币30亿元(合4.804亿美元),同比增长60%。这低于第二季度70%的增速,而根据该公司给出的第四季度收入预期,第四季度的增速还会进一步放缓。但考虑到经济放缓带来的阻力,这个业绩不算糟糕。
百度持续高成长的一个关键元素在于它成功地开发了小企业市场。第三季度百度新增客户达到创纪录的3.8万,二三线城市小企业占其中很大一部分。这方面还有进一步拓展的空间。在中国的数千万小企业当中,百度的39万客户只占一个微不足道的比例。
但竞争在加剧。易观(Analysys)的数据显示,中国互联网新秀奇虎360(Qihoo 360)的搜索流量市占率,已经从第二季度的零上升到第三季度的8%左右。其办法很简单,就是将其用户众多的浏览器上的默认搜索引擎改为它自己的搜索引擎。
市场份额的微小损失没有影响到百度的收入。据易观的数据,百度第三季度在搜索市场的收入份额稳定在78.6%。但如果奇虎能够进一步发力,并将增加的市场份额转变为实实在在的收入,情况可能就会发生变化。
移动化趋势也带来了挑战。目前移动上网是中国最流行的上网方式。第二季度72.2%的网民使用移动终端上网,而使用PC上网的网民比例为70.7%。百度首席执行长李彦宏(Robin Li)说,移动搜索出现了三位数的增长,而PC搜索增长率则没那么让人兴奋。
百度有一个激进的战略。它推出了新的移动浏览器、云功能,并向客户宣传移动广告的好处。不过目前百度在移动搜索市场的占有率比它在PC搜索市场的占有率要低。李彦宏说,客户的移动广告支出可能需要几年年时间才能与流量匹配。
百度股价已经从今年4月份的峰值151美元降至本周的113美元。仅从百度利润增速的减慢情况看,这种下降或许有些过头了。但投资者如果关注过美国网络巨头Facebook的股价因移动化趋势而遭受的打击,那就有理由保持警惕。